Trump vs Kamala | How Kamala Harris Can Beat Donald Trump – US Election 2024

Kamala Harris, the Vice President of the United States, is expected to face former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. As she prepares for this challenge, understanding her strengths and areas for improvement is crucial. This article delves into the factors that could help Harris secure a victory over Trump, focusing on voter demographics and the electoral college.

Appeal Among Voters of Color and Younger Voters

Black Voters

Kamala Harris has a strong appeal among Black voters, a demographic that is critical for any Democratic candidate. Recent polling by CNN/SSRS shows Harris leading Trump among Black voters by a significant margin: 78% to 15%. This is an improvement compared to President Joe Biden’s performance, who led 70% to 23% among the same respondents in earlier polls from April and June.

Hispanic Voters

Harris’s appeal among Hispanic voters is more competitive. In the latest poll, she leads Trump 47% to 45%. This is a notable improvement from Biden’s earlier performance, where Trump led 50% to 41% among the same respondents. This shift suggests that Harris has the potential to win over more Hispanic voters compared to Biden.

Young Voters

The trend is similar among voters under the age of 35. Harris currently leads Trump 47% to 43%, while Biden trailed Trump 49% to 42% among these voters in previous polls. This indicates a positive shift for Harris among younger voters, who are crucial for her campaign.

Historical Context and Comparisons

Biden’s Performance in 2020

To understand Harris’s potential, it’s important to look at Biden’s performance in the 2020 election. Biden had the worst performance for a Democrat among Black and Hispanic voters in over 50 years. Despite this, he managed to win the election by securing key battleground states.

Harris’s Current Position

While Harris has shown improvement over Biden’s earlier polling numbers, she still trails behind Biden’s final 2020 performance. At the end of the 2020 campaign, Biden led Trump 84% to 9% among Black voters and 58% to 32% among Hispanic voters. Among young voters, Biden had a significant advantage of 60% to 31% over Trump.

Areas for Improvement

Harris’s current polling shows room for improvement. To secure a victory, she needs to build on her current lead and strive to match or exceed Biden’s final 2020 numbers among these key demographics.

Defining Her Political Identity

Moving Beyond the Vice Presidency

As Harris continues her campaign, she has the opportunity to define herself beyond her role as Biden’s Vice President. Establishing her own political identity could help her resonate more with voters of color and young voters.

Overperforming Among Key Demographics

Harris’s stronger performance compared to Biden among voters of color could open up more paths to victory in the Electoral College. Biden’s pathway to 270 electoral votes was limited, relying heavily on winning northern battleground states. Harris’s improved appeal among Black and Hispanic voters could make the Sun Belt states more competitive.

Electoral College Strategy

Biden’s Limited Pathway

Biden’s strategy to secure 270 electoral votes involved winning key northern battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. His polling in Sun Belt states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina was poor, limiting his options.

Harris’s Potential Paths

By performing better among Black and Hispanic voters, Harris could reopen the possibility of winning Sun Belt states. If Harris can secure victories in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, she wouldn’t need to rely as heavily on northern battleground states. This would provide her with multiple paths to 270 electoral votes.

Combining Northern and Sun Belt States

Harris’s improved performance could also allow her to win a combination of northern and Sun Belt states. This strategy would give her more flexibility and increase her chances of reaching the required number of electoral votes.

Conclusion

The latest CNN polling data provides hope for the Harris campaign. While Trump remains a formidable opponent, Harris has shown that she can make up ground among key demographics where Biden struggled. By continuing to build on her current lead and defining her own political identity, Harris has multiple paths to victory. The key will be to maintain and expand her appeal among Black, Hispanic, and young voters, which could open up more opportunities in the Electoral College.

References

• CNN/SSRS Poll Data: The polling data mentioned in this analysis comes from the CNN/SSRS poll, which provides insights into voter preferences and trends.
• 2020 Election Results: Historical data from the 2020 presidential election, which highlights Biden’s performance and areas where Harris can improve.

By understanding and addressing these factors, Kamala Harris can enhance her chances of defeating Donald Trump in the upcoming election.

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